Interesting times ahead.

Quite sometime since I had the mood to post anything.

The last week showed STI breaking past the Mar-May highs, reaching almost 3040.

The question now is, have we completed wave 5? (which requires the move to have moved higher than 3031 the previous high). Are the big boys gonna let it retrace abit and push it up further since the other markets have yet to break March highs? Or have we completed wave 5 and just started wave A?

These are some questions to consider if you trade index stocks or stocks that mainly move with the index (note that micro pennies may not move with the index).

Trade safe!

Updates on STI components and Reits Yields

Sorry guys for no updates.
I was away for much of June. Church camp and a short holiday to Sydney to take a break from the hectic Singapore working life.

Anyways, the market was pretty much in a range and my opinion is that it currently looks like the start of "sucker rally 2". (The first being Jan to Mar). What do I mean by "sucker rally"? Well, lets just say I have the view that alot of retail investors are sidelined (as seen from the trading volumes) as they are uncertain of the road ahead. They may not have bought into the first rally earlier this year since the economy was looking pretty bad with all the negative news in 2nd half of 2011.

This 2nd rally is designed to lure in these sidelined investors so the financial institutions and funds can distribute their holdings. How do they do that? Well, they just keep pushing the prices up since volume is so thin and eventually retail investors might get itchy for fear of "missing the boat". This will continue to push prices higher until suddenly, everyone is vested and happy, with some capital gains unrealised. The big boys would have sold along the way up and at the top, buying will be only by retails and prices would only be able to slide down slowly but surely... Of course, news may speed up the dumping process and a market crash might occur.

Trade safe and be nimble!

End May STI & REITS dividend yield updates.

*Current dividend porfolio (started May 2012):

Just a modest portfolio...
I have a tendency to buy reits, collect dvd and sell after xd with some capital gain. I'm wondering if I will do better to hold for longer term instead of selling and looking to buy again at a lower price.

CityDev & STI

STI seems to have bottomed for now and is looking at rebound. The gap down was closed and target looks set to be around 2800 with 2770 as first resistance. 2800 is tricky as the 20MA, 20EMA, as well as a support turned resistance line currently stands. Failure to clear above the line would mean more down side.

2811 is interesting as it was the most recent high. If it manages to go above that, the failure of the lower high theory will suggest more upside to come.

Right now, Dow is rallying on hope that QE3 is coming. Hope can carry the market a long way but once it diminishes, the world can come crashing down...

I took an impulsive short position on Citydev on closing. I saw how much it gapped up between closing and matching period and decided to test the market with a small short. So far it closed at the upper resistance line and just below the 200ma. But with US rallying, it most probably will break up with prospects of it hitting around 10.40 region with the bollinger band and MA present.

Be nimble. I'll judge what to do when I wake up tomorrow morning and dow has closed.

Olam update

Olam supported by the red downtrend line... Still looks pretty bearish to me.
However, MACD histo is turning up so we might get a proper reversal soon.

Not vested.

After getting hit badly by Wilmar, I'm pretty much sidelined until I can make out what the market wants to do. Right now, I'm still of the opinion that it is consolidating in range before a big move up or down. I'm favouring another leg down (65% chance)

OSIM & Swiber

OSIM: I decided to take a short position as it broke below the triangle. I shorted at 1.165 but on small lots as Igmarket's margin was 25% on this. The prior trend to the triangle was downwards, so a breakdown was expected. My own target is about $1.

Swiber: It gapped down on open below the support line.. Looks bad. I didn't managed to short as I was too slow.

Swee Heng IPO thoughs

Some points that I found interesting


Competitive Strengths:
Established and proven track record of more than 43 years
- Our track record of repeatedly winning public sector tenders
is testament to the quality of our services. Most of our revenue
is derived from our public sector works – 100% in FY2011,
and 97.2% in FP2012.

Prospects:

- BCA has indicated that construction demand from the public sector
in 2013 and 2014 is expected to range between S$12 billion and
S$15 billion per year.

- The new North-South Expressway - a dual three-lane, expressway
to serve the north-south corridor is expected to commence
construction in 2013 and be completed by 2020.
- A dual four-lane road in Bukit Brown, linking Thomson Road, Adam
Road and the Pan Island Expressway, is expected to commence
construction in early 2013 and be completed by 2016.

Auditors: Nexia TS Public Accounting Corporation

NAV after ipo 13.62c

Dividend Policy: We currently do not have a fi xed dividend policy. However, we intend to recommend and distribute dividends of at least 20% of our net profi ts after tax attributable to Shareholders for FY2012 and FY2013

Trade and other receivables: 31m of which 24m is from contracts. (note that govt always will inspect thoroughly before payment)

Cash: 9.2m

Total Assets: 52m

Total Liabilities: 17.5m

Post IPO shares: 368.5m

Interesting to note that this is a family business so shares would be tightly held and see little play with the freefloat. At most during IPO, it might be played for a couple of days.

It might be worth a punt based on ipo price but a float of 2.8m for public will make it tough to get a good allocation. Also, the markets have just started their downtrend, so might not be a good time to vest.