Olam update

Olam supported by the red downtrend line... Still looks pretty bearish to me.
However, MACD histo is turning up so we might get a proper reversal soon.

Not vested.

After getting hit badly by Wilmar, I'm pretty much sidelined until I can make out what the market wants to do. Right now, I'm still of the opinion that it is consolidating in range before a big move up or down. I'm favouring another leg down (65% chance)

OSIM & Swiber

OSIM: I decided to take a short position as it broke below the triangle. I shorted at 1.165 but on small lots as Igmarket's margin was 25% on this. The prior trend to the triangle was downwards, so a breakdown was expected. My own target is about $1.

Swiber: It gapped down on open below the support line.. Looks bad. I didn't managed to short as I was too slow.

Swee Heng IPO thoughs

Some points that I found interesting


Competitive Strengths:
Established and proven track record of more than 43 years
- Our track record of repeatedly winning public sector tenders
is testament to the quality of our services. Most of our revenue
is derived from our public sector works – 100% in FY2011,
and 97.2% in FP2012.

Prospects:

- BCA has indicated that construction demand from the public sector
in 2013 and 2014 is expected to range between S$12 billion and
S$15 billion per year.

- The new North-South Expressway - a dual three-lane, expressway
to serve the north-south corridor is expected to commence
construction in 2013 and be completed by 2020.
- A dual four-lane road in Bukit Brown, linking Thomson Road, Adam
Road and the Pan Island Expressway, is expected to commence
construction in early 2013 and be completed by 2016.

Auditors: Nexia TS Public Accounting Corporation

NAV after ipo 13.62c

Dividend Policy: We currently do not have a fi xed dividend policy. However, we intend to recommend and distribute dividends of at least 20% of our net profi ts after tax attributable to Shareholders for FY2012 and FY2013

Trade and other receivables: 31m of which 24m is from contracts. (note that govt always will inspect thoroughly before payment)

Cash: 9.2m

Total Assets: 52m

Total Liabilities: 17.5m

Post IPO shares: 368.5m

Interesting to note that this is a family business so shares would be tightly held and see little play with the freefloat. At most during IPO, it might be played for a couple of days.

It might be worth a punt based on ipo price but a float of 2.8m for public will make it tough to get a good allocation. Also, the markets have just started their downtrend, so might not be a good time to vest.

Some charts and updates

Dow Jones just retested the 12712 support turned resistance and failed to breakup. This means we are probably seeing a double top with target around 12200. 

STI has been falling quite severely with all the commodities being hit. Wilmar last week and Olam today. 

Immediate support at 2821 and subsequent major support at 2785(?) region where the red trendline is. This is the line from 2009 low drawn to 2011's low.

 F&N broke the supporting uptrend line.Immediate support at 6.46 with 6.30 another support to look out for.

 Kep Corp has felled quite abit due to oil prices etc. I actually bought 1 lot at closing yesterday at 10.10 thinking that US and Europe would be green. My key support will be 9.99.

Osim looks to be a nice ascending triangle forming. However, as the previous trend was down, we favour the downside breakdown with potential drop of 30c from the breakdown point. Watch 1.17.

Olam crashed due to poorer than expected earnings. Immediate downside target would be 1.675.

 Sakari hit fibo line at 1.58 today. Looks to be support until broken with next support at 1.445

Swiber testing supporting trendline 0.545

Wilmar...

I got hit big time today due to Wilmar's poor results.
Had vested 2 lots at 4.915 average and it closed 4.26 today.
It had looked to be on a rebound until the economical news around the world, took its toil.

Zhun zhun hit the bottom of the weekly chart... but the week aint over as we still have tomorrow...

I guess I really should have thrown when 4.73 broke yesterday.. sigh... looks like I will have to baby sit this baby or at least sell half on the bounce.

Extra: I just noticed that before results in the past, if the results were going to be bad, the selling would have started 2-3 days before and generally there would have been a gap down the day before. Just something to note and might be useful in the future.

Just for Laughs!

 First it was the top...
Next they changed it to the bottom....

I love Simpsons!! Credit to Fox

DJI and S&P update

Both look like similiar DNA.... Dow must close above 12800 and S&P must close above 1345. If not, it may be a time to favour the dormant bears.

DVD stocks update

After some fierce selling today, I shall post some dividend yields as at end April

some updates as requested by friends

 F&N. I sold out my position at 7.11 and it went to close 7.17 on Wednesday. However, the candle on Thursday and Friday look toppish but they are low in volume which makes it slightly more unreliable. $7 will be crucial. A close below it will it test supports at the rising MA lines with stronger support at 6.85. First support is around 6.95 after break.

UOB: Based on daily chart, it seems to have turned down. Weekly chart candle looks toppish which requires confirmation. I was told XD is today (Monday) of 40c and with a gap down of 40c, it will open at 18.60 which  happens to be the 20MA line. The dvd will throw my charts off, so trade carefully. 

Mid term wise, it still is bullish with first support around 18.26. Trade safe

SSE looks like an inverted head and shoulders. Wonder if it will really form or will it be a false breakup...

Dow Jones is at 20ma support. If 13000 can't hold, next support around 12800 which happens also to be the 100ma line. If it is a double top breakdown, ie break 12700... we are seeing a potential drop to 12100-12200 where 200MA is.

Other news: Hollande just won the French election. Wonder if the market has already factored this in as suggested by some analysts.

A couple other charts with limited comments

 GoldenAgri.... to think I shorted at 79c (posted earlier in Apr) and went to cover at a loss of 79.5c (for fear of bumi agri's ipo pushing this above the upper channel). It has subsequently hit my target of the lower trendline... what a miss

NOL:  Rebound off 61.8% fibo. However, this weekly chart is about to show the cross over of the 13w and 26w EMA . There maybe further downside, I don't expect 1.195 to hold for long.
Note the bearish divergence of the force index earlier.

 Noble: Resting on the 78.6% fibo... Close to the black support trendline (around 1.16).
Trade with care on both directions.

Ramba: Broke down the lower support line.. looks very bad... MACD opening up..

Yanlord: I got conned by break up earlier and bought at 1.255 and 1.26. Ended up I sold at 1.215 earlier and 1.155 (on Monday). Only after I sold, then I realised Aberdeen bought at 1.18.. Thus, it did rebound on Monday. However, it's still not looking that good since the trendlines look to be acting at resistance now.

Some updates on F&N and UOB

F&N, the stock that I bought at closing when it broke above $7. (bought at 7.06)
The next day, I didn't match out at open (which on hindsight could have resulted in a nice profit of 10c).
Still, it's not uncommon for ascending triangle breakouts to retest the former resistance turned support. In this case, it has managed to close above $7 on both days. $6.99 was touched but probably by those having a stop loss when $7 broke.

I'm still in this, and I'm still looking for a strong move up. MACD still looking positive. Theoretical target is $8 but in this economic day and age, one must be nimble when weakness is seen. I'm ignoring the over sold stocs and RSI as this is a trending stock...

UOB: I had suggested on the day I bought F&N that an ascending triangle looked like forming. And this really came through (crap... went for the wrong stock). End up, I missed buying at around opening time and it flew off. I didn't chase as I had F&N already and thus, opportunity was lost. It climbed a brilliant 60c from breakout point. However, XD is coming with 40c dividends on 7th May.

Theoretical target was 19.80.. which leaves only about 50-60c upside...

Trade at your own risk