Nuffnang ad

Friday 17 August 2012

A Couple of Charts as promised

SembCorp


Sembcorp hit 5.79 afew days ago. The last time it reached this price was on Apr 2011. (see weekly chart below). 

It formed an inverted hammer lookalike candle on Tuesday. (long upper shadow and a small body.) The next day, it formed a "hammer lookalike candle" or rather, a hanging man candle. This might be sign of a top although I would have preferred a smaller candle body to the hanging man. Nonetheless, I decided to open a short at closing on Wednesday (@ $5.68). All these "toppish" looking candles require confirmation the following few days.

Today, it gave an almost solid black candle. This could be the bearish confirmation I was looking for, but the volume the last 2 days, have been short of the 14d average. Also, Dow is currently up +100 points because the markets are rallying on BAD DATA in hope there would QE3. (To me, this is ridiculous. It's like you are wishing the world becomes a worst place to live so that God will have no choice but to intervene and make everything better again...)

Anyways, immediate support would be around $5.40 where the 20MA and previous resistance turned support is. Cut loss will be if SembCorp is able to close at or above $5.80.


This is the weekly SembCorp chart. As we can see, there's a Bearish Divergence on MACD and the current week's candle looks pretty similar to Apr'11. On a bearish note, there's potential for a double top as well as the possibility that we have just formed the head of a H/S formation. On a bullish note for longer term investors, the 13w EMA and the 26w EMA are still on the uptrend. (if you follow this style of mid term investing, your entry would have been about $4.8


GLP

Same thing. GLP gapped up and formed that inverted hammer on the bearish STI day. This followed with a solid black candle today. MACD shows bearish divergence.


On the weekly, we can see GLP is at an all time high. The candle this week is again looking like an inverted hammer. The MACD also shows bearish divergence.

For mid to long term investors, the 13w EMA and the 26w EMA are still on the uptrend.

Saturday 11 August 2012

Small update

I haven't been posting much since I'm still pretty unsure where STI is heading. As I mentioned before, I had expected STI to hit between 3050-3100 and it has duly done that.

I personally feel now is the time to do the following:
1) Take profits
2) Cut losses on any bounce (on those that have hit stop losses or those that seemingly look weak)
3) Sit on cash and wait for direction.

Right now, I have tried to reduce my trading positions and have only bought acceptable small positions on those counters that are:
1) undervalued and near support, (DMX at 22.5c... now is about 22c with support at 21.5-22c)
2) seemingly has something brewing underneath (Popular... main shareholder kept buying for the last few months and his wife just bought 800+lots on National Day eve)
3) sold down for no reason (China Animal Health. Suppose to be working on delisting offer at 30c. Sold down on a few thousand lots volume. Not sure if there's news that delisting might not go ahead)

I cut my KTL position which was a big mistake when I didn't sell for profit about a year ago.. end up stuck with low liquidity. Decided to bite the bullet and take the loss to retrieve whatever capital there is. I don't think the business is able to turn around any time soon as well.

I'm looking out for Far East Reits to invest for my now empty DVD portfolio...

I'll try to find sometime to post charts going forward

Wednesday 1 August 2012

Update on STI and REITS yields