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Sunday 30 November 2014

Lack of updates

Hi all,

I haven't been diligently updating this blog but will do so come 2015.

I am starting to conduct small size workshops and just started a blog for it. It can be found at the following address: http://milofata.blogspot.sg/

Come 2015, I will also look to launch a paid weekly email service to people whom are interested. This blog will also be updated with some contents from that email. (wouldn't be fair to those who pay if I posted everything here online)

Thanks and have a blessed Christmas ahead.

Friday 21 February 2014

Been a long time since I last posted.. (Mewah and GP batt)

It's been along time since I posted any TA or FA here. Been doing that on Hardwarezone forums instead.
I'll try to share here some of my personal charts here this year. (the forum has largely been TA on request instead)

Mewah


I got intrigued when my dad was mentioning he was interested in palm oil related stocks since CPO has been going up. I did my check on CPO prices and yes the prices have been rising since October last year. It also coincided with a strong rally these few days by palm stocks like Indoagri, Goldenagri and Wilmar. It was then I noted Mewah hasn't moved abit and set about to look at the charts.

Seems to me that Mewah has consolidated for quite awhile and there's actually a really big triangle stretching all the way from 2012!.

It looks like Mewah did a mini breakout on really low volume yesterday.

Wondering if it's a rally to come..

GP Batt

There's no real chart to analyse for this as it has been on a downtrend for the longest time since 2010...
The interesting thing was that they issued rights recently and as a result the price dropped from 80+c to a low of 54c after ex-rights. Out of curiosity, I went to look at their fundamentals. I noted the following:

1) Loss on latest Q3 results as a result of impairment of receivables from a customer whom can't pay up. If not for this one-off impairment, Q3 would have been profitable.

2) NAV was at $2.30 per share! This was before rights issue. After rights, the NAV off hand, should be around $1.60-1.70. I noticed that they had very small number of shares in the market... just over 100 million... that's the reason why it's illiquid I guess

3) So why are they doing the rights issue? Well they got a bank loan that's due within 12 months and thus they needed the cash to pay off. As a result, they raised rights as well as sold of a property.

4) Sale of property. They sold a property within Q4 and is expected to book a gain of $9million. Based on the increase in shares after rights to about 150million, this translated to earning of about 6c per share in Q4's results! But don't expect any special dividends since the proceeds should be for payment of the bank loan mentioned earlier.

5) Shareholding. It is noted that GP Industries holds 50% of GP battery and GP Industries have just started to buy shares in GP Battery after XR. They have also been scooping up the rights on the market. If they believe it's cheap, I believe it is too....

As such, I actually bought in 10 small lots at 57c a few days ago with the intention to keep until the price rises back up.