Sorry guys for no updates.
I was away for much of June. Church camp and a short holiday to Sydney to take a break from the hectic Singapore working life.
Anyways, the market was pretty much in a range and my opinion is that it currently looks like the start of "sucker rally 2". (The first being Jan to Mar). What do I mean by "sucker rally"? Well, lets just say I have the view that alot of retail investors are sidelined (as seen from the trading volumes) as they are uncertain of the road ahead. They may not have bought into the first rally earlier this year since the economy was looking pretty bad with all the negative news in 2nd half of 2011.
This 2nd rally is designed to lure in these sidelined investors so the financial institutions and funds can distribute their holdings. How do they do that? Well, they just keep pushing the prices up since volume is so thin and eventually retail investors might get itchy for fear of "missing the boat". This will continue to push prices higher until suddenly, everyone is vested and happy, with some capital gains unrealised. The big boys would have sold along the way up and at the top, buying will be only by retails and prices would only be able to slide down slowly but surely... Of course, news may speed up the dumping process and a market crash might occur.
Trade safe and be nimble!
No comments:
Post a Comment