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Wednesday 22 February 2012

Wilmar's big drop


This is Wilmar's daily chart. As to why there was a gap down and large selling pressure, please refer to their earnings report as well as checking with your own brokers.

Firstly, we have a big falling window between 5.78 and 5.35 (I only took into account the candle bodies). This will prove to be a major resistance going forward. It has also broken my 14 Ema, 20MA, 50MA, 200MA and currently closed sitting on the 100MA. Incidentally, this 100ma also coincides with my fibonacci retracement line at 50%. It has also closed below my trendline resistance from the peaks of Nov 2010, July 2011 and Oct 2011. Not surprisingly, MACD and Stocs are all cutting down after such a violent move.


Lets move on to the weekly chart. As you can see, this week forms a big black bearish engulfing. The only MA resistance left is the 200 week MA at about 5.17-18 which it bounced off today. The weekly MACD is not yet cut but it doesn't look good with such a big candle.

In conclusion, I expect more selling in days ahead. The 100 daily ma and 200 weekly ma should not be able to withstand the selling pressure. Target price will be firstly $5-5.02, and if $5 is broken, we would be looking to 4.75-8 region... Caveat Emptor.

PS: I tried to open a short position at closing but failed to match as I queued at 5.23. Thus I'm currently not vested, but may be interested in taking a short position tomorrow.

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