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Friday 9 March 2012

Retracements of STI and DOW

The recent drop of the Dow and STI shows some interesting fibo observations (in particular the Dow)


Note that I'm typing this before Dow closes tonight, thus the data is still based on yesterday's close.

Yesterday's close rebound actually touched the magical 61.8% line and drew back. I was expecting it to drop or consolidate at a range below 12860 today, but it isn't going to be the case. As at writing, Dow is at 12927. This is near the 38.2% (the other magical number). It had gone as high as 12958 at future after our market close but as of open trading hours, it only hit 12938 afew minutes earlier. This suggested it bounced off this fibo line. The question is, will it drop from here? Or will it continue rising. It is going up, I fancy it creating a new high above 13060. This will cause a bearish divergence to appear on the MACD. (those who got deep pockets can consider a small short here)



Similiar, STI rebounded in advance since we were open as we ran ahead on Greek debt news. My fibo of 50% is hit. If it is going to follow Dow tomorrow, We expect 2984 to be reached. That's another 0.5% or 14-15points on STI.

As commented earlier, STI may be looking to break the 3031 high and create the smiliar bearish divergence. When that happens, I'll be risking some money to do an experimental short in Igmarket's "Singapore blue chip index". Slowly opening and pyramiding contracts on it since there's no commission and only a slippage between 0.2-0.5points. Each contract is a mini S$10 meaning 1 point is worth $10 per contract.

Ps: noticed the other day's low reversal candle? It's body still closed below my Long Term Fibo line at 2914.

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